Tree Triple Exponential Smoothing Analysis in Forecasting of Fertilizer Sales

Santi prayudani; Wiwin Sry Adinda Banjarnahor; Muhammad Rivan Nugroho; Tazkiyatun Nisa

doi:10.62123/aqila.v1i2.49

Authors

Santi prayudani Prayudani
Wiwin Sry Adinda Banjarnahor Politeknik Negeri Medan
Muhammad Rivan Nugroho
Tazkiyatun Nisa Politeknik Negeri Medan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62123/aqila.v1i2.49

Keywords:

Urea fertilizer, Forecasting, Triple Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

The majority of Indonesia's population relies on the agricultural sector, making fertilizer an essential raw material to increase productivity. PT. Pupuk Iskandar Muda (PIM), faces challenges in maintaining the balance of urea fertilizer production and demand. In 2021, PIM's urea fertilizer production was unable to meet demand, while in 2019, 2020, and 2022 there was overproduction. This inventory non-optimization can lead to productivity bottlenecks and increased storage costs. One solution to this problem is forecasting. This research uses the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) forecasting method in forecasting urea fertilizer sales for the next period. The data used is fertilizer sales data from PT PIM for the 2019-2023 period. Evaluation of the accuracy value is done using the MAD, MSE, and MAPE matrices. The results of this study indicate that the TES method with a smoothing weight value of Alpha = 0.4, Beta = 0.2, and Gamma = 0.4 produces a MAD value of 22,017.75, MSE of 990,752,983.08, and MAPE of 22.3% which can be categorized as quite feasible to use in forecasting the demand for urea fertilizer at PT PIM seen from the MAPE value.

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